Six weeks of research. The fiber category has a lot of competition but everyone is doing different versions of the same thing. Nobody has combined a new format with a new formulation. That is the gap.
Decision brief locked around two axes: format and formulation. Custom goat mold (2 gummies, 5g each, 10g per serving) is the commitment. Low-FODMAP is the differentiator. GOAT daily (gummy) is the business. GOAT pro (gummy + powder) is the commerce architecture. Competitive research expanded to 20+ brands across formulation and format. Key finding: Metamucil gummies use inulin, not psyllium. Even they compromised formulation for format. TopGum samples in hand as of May 3.
Mark's quotes (6 variations) are due early this week. Actazin is hard to source. Anti-bloat path, serving size, and product strategy decisions all hinge on these numbers. TopGum R&D call (Jennifer + Yousef) week of May 11. La Libertad creative round ~May 16. Helios operating agreement, bank account, and entity registrations in progress.
Americans eat about 15g of fiber a day. The recommendation is 25-38g. That gap drives real health outcomes and has decades of peer-reviewed research behind it. The clinical evidence is stronger than protein, stronger than creatine, stronger than greens. The category should be massive. It is not.
The reason is the products. Metamucil is a powder from 1934. Capsules require 4-6 pills. Gummies exist but they all use high-FODMAP fibers that cause gas, bloating, and cramping. The supplements create the symptoms people are trying to avoid. Category dropout within 90 days is 60-70%.
PHGG, acacia, and psyllium (pending benchtop). Three fibers, three mechanisms: bulk formation, slow fermentation, prebiotic activity. Metamucil does one. GOAT does three. Plus Actazin (kiwifruit enzyme, clinically studied for regularity) and ginger extract (clinically supported for bloating). Not your doctor's recommendation. But if your doctor told you to take fiber, this is what they would hand you.
Gruns hit 95% daily usage. That was the number Unilever bought for $1.2B. Not the brand, not the ingredient panel. Adherence. Subscription-first from day one. 2.3x LTV versus transactional. 3:1 LTV to CAC from launch. AG1 built the same engine. Gummies are the format people do not skip. But format alone does not hold. If the product bloats you, you stop. Low-FODMAP is not just a formulation decision. It is a retention decision.
Even in a stick pack, powder is still powder. It requires water, a glass, a counter, a routine. Compliance drops after 30 days because the format asks too much of the user. Metamucil has been selling the same powder for 90 years and still has a dropout problem. A stick pack is portable, but it is not a new format. It is the same format in a smaller bag. Nobody in this category has combined a new format with a new formulation. That is the gap.
Aggressive September 7 launch. Requires five things to go right: decisions this week (not next), benchtop in 2 weeks (not 3), pre-ordering powder raw materials before formula lock, QC overlapping with final production, and 3PL setup running in parallel. Powder at 12 weeks is non-negotiable. We compress everything around it. TopGum could accelerate gummies if their turnaround beats Mark's.
1. Decisions this week (quotes land, decisions made by May 9). 2. Benchtop in 2 weeks (need Mark to prioritize, not his standard 3). 3. Pre-order powder raw materials before formula lock (fiber stack is locked, risk is low, saves 2-3 weeks on the 12-week clock). 4. QC overlaps with final production (start testing gummies while powder finishes). 5. 3PL setup runs parallel with production (not sequential). If any one of these slips, we are back to October.
1. Gummy production lead time (his sheet only lists capsules and powders). 2. Benchtop sample turnaround (not documented). 3. Custom mold fabrication time if going with goat silhouette. These three answers tighten or loosen the entire timeline.
Samples in hand as of May 3. R&D call with Jennifer Toomey and Yousef is week of May 11. TopGum's FOS platform puts FOS at 80-90% of a 5g gummy. Non-FOS base is 8-12 months. After the call, we'll know if they can run production on a timeline that competes with Mark's. Key question: can they hit a similar or faster turnaround than Intermountain on the gummy side?
Two manufacturers are quoting. Intermountain Nutrition (domestic, Mark Harris) is quoting three powder and three gummy variations. TopGum (Israel, Phil DaSilva) received our target SFP and competitive matrix. The ingredient stack is locked. Everything that didn't work is dead and gone.
| Task | Owner | Due | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark quotes (6 variations) | Mark Harris | May 5 | Waiting | 3 powder + 3 gummy. Actazin sourcing slowing it down. |
| Review quotes, pick anti-bloat path | Michael | May 7 | Blocked | Simethicone vs Actazin vs neither. Decision drives everything downstream. |
| 6g mold feasibility + goat silhouette | Mark Harris | May 9 | Waiting | Custom goat shape. $20k upfront or volume commitment. 2 vs 4 gummies/serving. |
| Decide serving size: 2 vs 4 gummies | Michael + Doug | May 12 | Blocked | Depends on 6g mold feasibility and quote delta. |
| TopGum call: SFP review + paper formula | Michael + Yousef | May 12 | Scheduled | Jennifer Toomey (R&D) + Yousef. SFP and psyllium matrix sent. Samples in hand as of May 3. |
| Psyllium bench trial brief | Michael | May 14 | Blocked | 750mg to 2g escalating doses. After quotes settle. Both say it won't work, we want proof. |
| Benchtop samples ordered | Mark Harris | May 19 | Not Started | After quote approval and formulation lock. First physical product. |
| Product strategy: gummy + tub vs stick pack | Michael + Doug | May 9 | Not Started | Does the gummy become the portable format and powder stays tub only? |
Primary fibers: psyllium husk, PHGG/Sunfiber, acacia. Anti-bloat: Actazin (kiwifruit extract) at 600mg clinical dose, 37% bloating improvement. Ginger extract for additional GI support. Dead: peppermint oil, TriBysn, CoreBiome, probiotics. No FOS, no inulin, no artificial sweeteners.
Both manufacturers say psyllium doesn't work at high dose in a gummy. It gels and destroys the matrix. Seven Amazon brands are doing it at 750mg, but nobody's cracked it above that. We're pushing both to bench trial at escalating doses. If it fails, we still have a strong product with PHGG only.
Quoting 3 powder + 3 gummy variations. Current tooling: 3g mold, 4 gummies/serving. 6g mold gets to 2/serving. 300k gummy MOQ. Simethicone hard to source. Actazin suggested as alternative. Custom goat silhouette mold in discussion.
Samples in hand as of May 3. R&D call week of May 11. Patented FOS-based platform: FOS is 80-90% of gummy, leaving under 1g usable space. Non-FOS base is 8-12 months. After the call, we'll know if they can run production on a timeline that competes with Mark's.
| Task | Owner | Due | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Libertad: visual identity, logo, packaging | La Libertad | May 16 | In Progress | Back and forth this week. Next round in ~2 weeks. This unlocks website build. |
| Review creative directions with Doug | Michael + Doug | May 19 | Not Started | Doug weighs in on visual identity. Flagged in update email. |
| Final brand direction selected | Michael + Doug | May 26 | Not Started | Lock logo, color, typography, packaging direction. |
Visual identity directions, logo concepts, and packaging design. These assets unlock the website build in Base 44. Until they land, the site framework and prompt are ready but can't be generated.
| Task | Owner | Due | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Website framework written | Michael | May 1 | Done | 5 pages. Modeled on Gruns. Framework complete. |
| Base 44 prompt built | Michael | May 3 | Done | Ready to generate frontend. |
| Generate site build in Base 44 | Michael | May 19 | Blocked | Waiting on brand assets from La Libertad. |
| Site review and iteration | Michael | May 26 | Not Started | Mobile test, refine copy, product photography placeholder. |
| Shopify integration | Michael | Jun 9 | Not Started | Payment, subscription, checkout. After design lock. |
| Task | Owner | Due | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helios operating agreement finalized | Michael | May 12 | In Progress | Working through it. Pull Doug in if major pushback. |
| Bank account setup | Michael | May 9 | In Progress | In process. |
| Entity registrations complete | Michael | May 9 | In Progress | IMA GOAT LLC. State filings. |
| Starter pack / SKU strategy decided | Michael + Doug | May 12 | Not Started | Single SKU entry, bundle, protocol kit. After quotes land. |
Four decisions pending. All downstream of Mark's quotes. Once we have numbers, these move within a week.
Drives cost, sourcing complexity, and marketing claims. Actazin is harder to source but clinically stronger.
Custom goat silhouette in 6g mold = 2/serving. Standard 3g mold = 4/serving. Decision brief recommends custom mold: 2x dose per unit vs any competitor.
Gummy is the portable format. Powder stays tub only as pro tier for AOV/LTV lift. Stick pack is the same format in a smaller bag, not a new format.
GOAT daily (gummy) is the business. GOAT pro (gummy + powder) is the commerce architecture. How does the customer first experience the brand?
The competitive set splits into two camps. Formulation competitors have real science but are stuck in powder. Format competitors solved for convenience but compromised on formulation. Nobody has done both.
Brands competing on formulation. They can deliver dose but they cannot deliver adherence. Most are powder. The science can be right and the format can still kill the business.
| Brand | Format | Dose | Fiber Type | FODMAP | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamucil | Powder | 5-6g | Psyllium | LOW | Format kills compliance |
| Konsyl | Powder | 6g | Psyllium | LOW | Pharmacy brand, no DTC |
| ColonBroom | Powder | 3.6-7.2g | Psyllium | LOW | Weight loss positioning |
| Loam | Powder | 10g | PHGG + 5 prebiotic fibers | LOW | Dr. Karan Rajan. 10M followers. 40K waitlist. $45. |
| Supergut | Powder/bar | 6-15g | PHGG + resistant starch | LOW | Strong on science. No gummy. |
| Benefiber | Powder/gummy | 3-6g | Wheat dextrin | LOW | Legacy, underdosed gummy |
| GOAT | Gummy | 10g | PHGG + acacia + psyllium | LOW | Formulation + format |
Brands competing on format. Every gummy uses high-FODMAP fibers. Every one delivers a lower dose per unit than GOAT. Floura is the outlier on dose at 13-15g per bar, but still uses chicory root inulin.
| Brand | g/unit | Serving | Fiber Type | FODMAP | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLLY | 2.5 | 5g / 2 | FOS | HIGH | Mass retail, $14 |
| Gruns | ~2 | 6g / 3 | Chicory root inulin | HIGH | Sold to Unilever, $1.2B |
| Sakara | 3 | 6g / 2 | FOS (beet) | HIGH | Wellness premium, $40 |
| Metamucil | 1.7 | 5g / 3 | Inulin + corn fiber | HIGH | Dropped psyllium for gummy |
| Lemme No. 2 | ~2 | 4g / 2 | FOS | HIGH | Kardashian brand, $30 |
| Nature Made | ~2 | 5-6g / 3 | FOS | HIGH | Mass retail, pharmacy |
| Vitafusion | 2.5 | 5g / 2 | Polydextrose | MOD | Mass retail, sugar-free |
| New Chapter | 2 | 4-8g / 2-4 | Agave inulin | HIGH | Organic, variable serving |
| O Positiv | ~2 | 4g / 2 | Chicory root inulin | HIGH | Women's wellness DTC |
| SmartyPants | ~1 | 3g / 3 | Inulin | HIGH | Multi + fiber combo |
| Midi Health | 2.5 | 5g / 2 | Soluble corn fiber | MOD | Women 40+, menopause, $55 |
| Bellway | 1.7 | 5g / 3 | PHGG | LOW | Right fiber. Low dose per unit. |
| Floura | bar | 13-15g / 1 | Chicory root inulin | HIGH | Jeni Britton (Jeni's Ice Cream). $36/10. |
| GOAT | 5 | 10g / 2 | PHGG + acacia + psyllium | LOW | Only low-FODMAP at clinical dose |
*Psyllium in gummy pending bench trial. PHGG-only fallback still 2x the nearest competitor at clinical dose.
GOAT daily is the product. It is complete on its own. GOAT pro exists as a bundle tier for the consumer who wants clinical-level dosing at 25g.
| GOAT daily | GOAT pro | |
|---|---|---|
| What it is | 2 gummies | Gummy + psyllium-forward powder |
| Fiber dose | 10g | 25g |
| Fiber blend | PHGG + acacia + psyllium (pending) | Gummy blend + psyllium powder |
| Format | Custom goat mold, 5g per unit | Gummy + tub |
| Role | The product. Standalone. Complete. | Bundle tier. AOV and LTV lift. |
AG1 is $600M+. Gruns sold for $1.2B in 30 months. Both built on the daily greens habit. Same consumer, same channel, same price range, same subscription model. Fiber has more clinical evidence than any greens blend on the market. The FDA allows health claims on fiber. It does not on greens powders. We are not asking the greens consumer to switch. We are showing them the gap in their stack.